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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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growing by more than 2.5 percent per annum. This will necessitate large increases in expenditure, but probably little change in the proportion of GNP required for education, since GNP will also be increasing.*
The more realistic situation is one in which an attempt is made to raise the proportion of children in school quite rapidly. (See the earlier section on official educational goals.) What is the importance of population growth as a component in burgeoning pupil numbers and teacher requirements in this situation? It is sometimes claimed that when a country begins with only a small proportion of its children in school, the problem of population growth is of only secondary importance. The impact of population growth in raising pupil numbers, it is claimed, is "swamped" by the impact of a sharp rise in enrollment rates.
To study the validity of this claim some hypothetical projections have been computed for a country whose population structure resembled that of many developing countries (particularly those of much of Africa and south and southwest Asia), and in which only 40 percent of children aged 5 to 14 are in school. A series of three population projections were computed, all with the same improvement in mortality (a rise in the expectation of life at birth from 45 years in the first 5-year period to 70 years 40 years later) but with differing assumptions about fertility: continuing high fertility, gradually declining, and rapidly declining fertility. The constant fertility projection assumed that the ratio of female births to women aged 15 to 44 remained constant throughout the projection period;' the declining fertility projection assumed that this ratio fell linearly by one half in the first 30 years and remained constant thereafter; and the rapidly declining fertility projection assumed that it fell linearly by half in the first 15 years and remained constant thereafter.?
It was further assumed that the proportion of children in school in the age group 5 to 14 rose geometrically from 40 percent in the base year to 95 percent, but over differing periods of time: 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, and 40 years. Each of these assumptions was applied to each population, and the resultant increases in enrollments were attributed to demographic trends, ER (enrollment rate) trends, or a combination of both by means of standardization techniques. The results are shown in Table 8. In determining teacher requirements, (see Table 9) the pupil/teacher ratio (PTR) was assumed to improve from 40 to 30 in the same length of time as the enrollment ratio took to reach 95 percent.
*A specific example, for Uganda, is contained in (12, pp. 56-57, 204-205). tAt 0.103.
^For more details on the population projections, see (25, pp. 228-229).  Specifically, increases attributable to demographic trends were computed by holding ER constant and allowing population size to vary, and those attributable to ER increases
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